Prospects for peace, 1973-1977

Description

This study contains the findings from a survey of expert opinion on the prospects for peace, 1972-77, using 151 respondents drawn mainly from leading American university centers of international studies, although some United States government officials and non-United States scholars are also represented. The survey was conducted in early 1973, largely by mail, with a response rate of approximately 1 in 3. A series of 121 questions were asked concerning the likelihood of war and peace in different parts of the world, viability of 1972 SALT accords and prospects for other arms control measures, alternate scenarios for Indochina, Middle East, and U.S.-Soviet relations, ranking of the forces most dangerous and most most conductive to international peace and economic development, likely linkages between trade and political relations among the great powers, expected role of the UN and other international institutions. Most questions ask respondents to rate the relative probability of some event occurring in 1972 on a scale of 1 to 5, other questions ask respondents to select alternative future events considered most likely to have occurred by 1977.